Definition
Plain language
When how things turned out depends heavily on the particular sequence of events that happened to occur.
As stated in the literature
Sensitivity of an outcome to trajectory rather than to underlying policy quality; a key confound for single-seed simulation results, since early random advantage can compound into apparently stable rankings.
Also called: path-dependent, path dependent
Why it matters: It means a ranking from a single run may be measuring luck that compounded rather than skill, so differences need multiple runs before they mean anything.
For example, one club wins a coin-flip cup final in season two, banks the prize money, and stays on top for eighteen years on the strength of that early break.
Heard on the show
“Title rotation among ten models is exactly the kind of result that could be a single world's path dependence.”Episode 245 — Fifteen Models Ran Football Clubs for Twenty Years, and Size Didn't Decide It