Glossary · Term

confounder

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Definition

Plain language

A hidden factor that quietly influences a result, making it look like one thing caused another when something else was really at work.

As stated in the literature

A variable correlated with both the treatment and the outcome, which biases an estimated effect unless controlled for; here, a policy's sponsor confounds the model's feasibility score.

Also called: confounding

Why it matters: Without accounting for confounders, you can draw the wrong conclusion about what actually causes an outcome and act on a false lesson.

For example, if students who use a study app get better grades, the real cause might be that motivated students both download the app and study harder anyway.

Heard on the show

“Geopolitical endorsement is a confounder.”
Episode 215 — The Same Policy Scored 85 for the US and 36 for Russia

Mentioned in 2 episodes

  1. 215
    The Same Policy Scored 85 for the US and 36 for Russia
  2. 069
    When Smarter Models Forecast Worse: The Hidden Failure Mode in LLM Predictions

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