Glossary · Term

derived Brier

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Definition

A Brier-style score computed from a full distributional forecast by picking a threshold.

A binary threshold metric reconstructed from quantile forecasts at a chosen cutoff, used in the inverse-scaling paper to demonstrate that the same outputs produce opposite capability-accuracy rankings under CRPS versus Brier-style scoring.

Mentioned in 1 episode

  1. 069
    When Smarter Models Forecast Worse: The Hidden Failure Mode in LLM Predictions