Glossary · Term

CRPS

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Definition

A grading rule for forecasts that checks the whole shape of a predicted range, not just one cutoff.

Continuous Ranked Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that integrates squared error between a forecast CDF and the realized outcome across all thresholds; sensitive to tail miscalibration where Brier-style metrics are not.

Also called: Continuous Ranked Probability Score

Mentioned in 1 episode

  1. 069
    When Smarter Models Forecast Worse: The Hidden Failure Mode in LLM Predictions