Definition
Plain language
Not knowing something because the answer doesn't exist yet — like how a coin will land.
As stated in the literature
Irreducible randomness in an outcome that cannot be eliminated by gathering more data, as distinct from epistemic uncertainty about a determinate but unknown value.
Also called: irreducible uncertainty
Why it matters: Recognizing that some uncertainty cannot be researched away tells you when more data collection is wasted effort and when the honest answer is a probability rather than a fact.
For example, no amount of research will tell you whether a fair coin flipped tomorrow will land heads, because the outcome simply has not happened yet.
Heard on the show
“The second is aleatoric uncertainty.”Episode 251 — When a Fake Dashboard Makes an AI Agent Just as Confident