Definition
Plain language
At any point in an AI's reasoning, the fraction of ways it could finish from there that reach the right answer.
As stated in the literature
A per-token measure of solution health estimated by forking many continuations from a position and counting correct outcomes; measured at every token to localize cliff tokens.
Also called: potential
Why it matters: Measuring this at each word reveals exactly where a model's chance of success collapses, helping locate the moment reasoning goes wrong.
For example, partway through a model's solution, if 90 out of 100 ways of finishing reach the right answer, the token-wise potential there is high.
Heard on the show
“… If the potential function is telling the agent "you're close, you're close, you're close," and the policy learns …”Episode 008 — Why Long-Horizon AI Agents Get Stuck, and a Milestone-Based Fix That Helps