Glossary · Term

selection bias

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Definition

Plain language

When the way you pick cases skews what you find, even if each case is studied honestly.

As stated in the literature

A statistical pattern where the sample selection process correlates with the outcome variable, biasing estimates; flagged for instance in QUEST's auto-formalization filtering and SIA's verifier-friendly benchmark choices.

Why it matters: It's the silent enemy of benchmark-driven research: the very filter that lets you build a dataset cheaply can guarantee the data isn't representative.

For example, if you only train an AI on math problems whose answers your auto-grader can verify, the resulting model gets very good at easily-checkable math — and possibly worse elsewhere.

Heard on the show

“Exploration bias, then selection bias.”
Episode 196 — AI Agents Reached Opposite Conclusions From the Same Data — and Passed Review

Mentioned in 3 episodes

  1. 196
    AI Agents Reached Opposite Conclusions From the Same Data — and Passed Review
  2. 078
    Training a Markdown File: When LLM Self-Improvement Borrows the Discipline of Neural Net Training
  3. 067
    An AI Just Solved a 1996 Erdős Problem—and the Simplest Agent Won

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