Definition
Plain language
Writing down and locking in your exact predictions and analysis plan before collecting any data, so you can't fool yourself by finding a pattern after the fact.
As stated in the literature
A research-methods safeguard against post-hoc storytelling in which hypotheses, stimuli, and analysis procedures are committed before data collection; used to confirm AutoCog's diminishing-returns finding on a fresh study.
Also called: preregistered
Why it matters: It guards against the temptation to invent an explanation after seeing the data, making a confirmed finding far more credible.
For example, a researcher writes down 'we predict choices will follow the diminishing-returns pattern' and locks in the analysis plan before any participant data is collected.
Heard on the show
“It reports a preregistered prediction that failed.”Episode 233 — Why a Model Can Grade an Answer But Not Write the Answer Key