Definition
Plain language
A single best-guess number, without the range around it.
As stated in the literature
A scalar summary of a parameter (e.g. a sample mean or difference in proportions) reported without its associated interval or dispersion.
Also called: point estimates
Why it matters: A single number sounds far more certain than the evidence usually supports, which is why the interval around it is often the more informative part.
For example, reporting that a treatment improved accuracy by eight percentage points, without saying whether the true effect might be two points or fourteen.
Heard on the show
“The bootstrap confidence interval on the capability-expansion statistic is something like two to eight problems — well above zero, but a wide band around the five-to-one point estimate.”Episode 011 — When RL Actually Teaches Agents Something New, And When It Doesn't