Glossary · Term

multiple-comparison threshold

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Definition

Plain language

A stricter bar for calling a result real when you've tested many things at once.

As stated in the literature

Adjusted significance criterion (Bonferroni, Holm, FDR) applied when running many hypothesis tests, controlling the family-wise error rate or false discovery rate.

Also called: multiple comparisons, multiple-comparison correction

Why it matters: Without it, running enough tests all but guarantees you will find and publish something that isn't there.

For example, if you test twenty different tweaks to a prompt, roughly one will look like a winner by pure chance unless you raise the bar for what counts as a real effect.

Heard on the show

“It doesn't survive the paper's own multiple-comparison threshold.”
Episode 249 — The Chatbot Knows Your Facts And Still Won't Mention Them

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