Definition
Plain language
In poker, the chance of winning a hand simply because your bet makes the opponent give up and fold.
As stated in the literature
The portion of a bet's value that comes from the probability the opponent folds, distinct from the hand's chance of improving by the river; central to why semi-bluffs with drawing hands are profitable.
Why it matters: It explains why aggressive bets can be profitable even when your cards are behind, since winning by making opponents quit is a real source of value.
For example, betting big with a weak hand can still win if the opponent is likely to fold, and that chance of forcing a fold is the fold equity.