Definition
Plain language
How long it takes for a measured quantity to get twice as big.
As stated in the literature
Fitted time constant of an exponential trend; here the interval over which compute efficiency on the benchmark doubles.
Why it matters: Knowing the doubling time lets people project whether a capability is years or decades away instead of guessing from a single snapshot.
For example, if an approach gets twice as much quality out of the same computing budget every nine months, its doubling time is nine months.
Heard on the show
“The fitted doubling time drops from about fourteen months to .”Episode 287 — Can You Measure Research Taste If The AI Isn't Allowed To Code?