Glossary · Term

confidence interval

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Definition

Plain language

A range of values that probably contains the true number you're trying to measure.

As stated in the literature

An interval estimate around a measured statistic expressing the uncertainty of the estimate; non-overlapping intervals are used as informal evidence that two measured groups genuinely differ.

Also called: confidence intervals

Why it matters: It tells you how much to trust a measured number and offers a quick way to judge whether two results really differ or just look different by chance.

For example, a poll might report that 52% of people favor a policy, give or take 3 percentage points, meaning the true figure likely sits between 49% and 55%.

Heard on the show

“The gap drops to eight thousandths, with a confidence interval covering zero.”
Episode 233 — Why a Model Can Grade an Answer But Not Write the Answer Key

Mentioned in 21 episodes

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